I remember when I was watching All The Dolph, someone asked me when it became work. There was a rough patch that I hit, but then it redeemed itself. American Song Contest became a chore starting about Week 3. Now, it is almost like torture. I just want it to be over. The jury is terrible, and I want a real song contest that isn’t exclusively governed by Atlantic Records and iHeartMedia.
I expected American Samoa and North Carolina to go through. I was excited that American Samoa made it through. I wasn’t sure if California would get the votes, but they did deserve to make it through. Super excited for New York to come back. She really should have went through the first time.
I am not surprised in the slightest the jury picked Washington tonight. They love him so. This episode was chocked full of boring white people singing lame songs. Side Note: With the jury votes not mattering for the next four people to make it in, I sure hope the audience votes for diversity and fun.
The Songs
Kentucky — Jordan Smith — “Sparrow”
Originally In: Round 2
Original Jury Ranking: 1
Semi-final 1 Jury Ranking: 2
Will It Go Through? This is a tough one. This is exactly what I expect from a UK ballad entry in ESC. He has a great voice, and this song is tailor made for a song competition. That being said, I’m never a fan of the ballads overall. I think this song has a shot to go through, but it is going to have some tough competition from fan favorites. To be honest, I was sure the jury would pick this knowing Washington would make it through with viewers.
Colorado — Riker Lynch — “Feel The Love”
Originally In: Round 3
Original Jury Ranking: 6
Semi-final 1 Jury Ranking: 11
Will It Go Through? Let’s start with something important. Nobody in our Eurovision group from Colorado or who currently lives in Colorado has ever heard “Denver me is energy”. Riker definitely studied Melodifestivalen entries and brings that kind of polish to this entry. He is like an entertainment director on a cruise ship that is back home for the summer. The planted dancers in the audience are a choice that I’m not fond of. While this song has previously ranked 5th in streams on Spotify, it will be on the bubble.
New Hampshire — MARi — “Fly”
Originally In: Round 4
Original Jury Ranking: 8
Semi-final 1 Jury Ranking: 9
Will It Go Through? Something stupid that I noticed: why is the “drummer” on the right being all left shark? He is completely out of sync. Having people pretend to play instruments is just dumb. MARi has good energy. She is easily likeable as a performer. Given that she was able to jump so high from the jury rankings last time, I think she has a shot to go through. She was a little pitchy this time, so I hope it doesn’t affect her. I really want her to go through.
Washington — Allen Stone — “A Bit of Both”
Originally In: Round 4
Original Jury Ranking: 1
Semi-final 1 Jury Ranking: 1
Will It Go Through? Of course the jury picked it. I had no doubt he was winning their vote tonight. They really love this song. I agree that he can SING. But it doesn’t make me look past the fact that he looks like a cult leader who has people in his basement. Also, this is a middle of the album track not a single.
Alabama — Ni/Co — “The Difference”
Originally In: Round 3
Original Jury Ranking: 3
Semi-final 1 Jury Ranking: 6
Will It Go Through? I genuinely do not like this entry. She is pitchy, but he can sing. This song is just terrible. She seems entirely fake in everything she does, and the more she talks the more I dislike her. A love story is not a reason to like a song. Quit it ASC. Compared to the other contestants, it ranked much lower in Spotify streams overall going into the night. I don’t expect it to go through.
Wyoming — Ryan Charles — “New Boot Goofin’”
Originally In: Round 1
Original Jury Ranking: 10
Semi-final 1 Jury Ranking: 10
Will It Go Through? Ryan Charles is a national treasure. It is the second most streamed song in this semi-final on Spotify. This is a fan favorite, and I have been heavily streaming it since his performance. Last time, he got sank by the jury. Since this is purely on fan vote, he has a real shot to go through. He is the only fun entry in this whole competition, and I hope he makes it.
Rhode Island — Hueston — “Held on Too Long”
Originally In: Round 1
Original Jury Ranking: 1
Semi-final 1 Jury Ranking: 3
Will It Go Through? Benny from Supernatural is back! He sounds like Travis Tritt doing an impression of Eddie Vedder, and I can’t unhear it. While I’m not a fan of tortured white male aesthetic or face tattoos, going into the night it was the fourth most streamed song on Spotify. This song is also popular with the fans. The difference here is people who like ballads are going to have to split their votes this time. He will have competition with Kentucky, Massachusetts, and Michigan for his spot.
Montana — Jonah Prill — “Fire It Up”
Originally In: Round 2
Original Jury Ranking: 3
Semi-final 1 Jury Ranking: 7
Will It Go Through? This kind of bro country does not really appeal to me. One of the members of our group said “this song is a fraternity come to life.” It is something I fully expect to hear during College Game Day. It is more catchy this time around. Given how popular this genre is, this song has a shot to make it. It will be on the bubble though.
Michigan — Ada LeAnn — “Natalie”
Originally In: Round 5
Original Jury Ranking: 1
Semi-final 1 Jury Ranking: 4
Will It Go Through? I genuinely dislike this song. I can’t stand her prom dress attire. She has cold dead eyes. Her “angst” is 100% unbelievable and manufactured. It’s like an acting coach told her she needed to be mad, but she’s a novice actor. Since it hasn’t had time to build a fan base like other entries, I have no idea how this will do.
Massachusetts — Jared Lee — “Shameless”
Originally In: Round 4
Original Jury Ranking: 2
Semi-final 1 Jury Ranking: 8
Will It Go Through? What an awful song. The longer I stare at him he looks kind of like Donnie Wahlberg, Tom Green, and Donald Trump Jr. had a baby. This song is so damn boring. Compared to the other entries, it was streamed far less. It shouldn’t go through.
Oklahoma — AleXa — “Wonderland”
Originally In: Round 1
Original Jury Ranking: 2
Semi-final 1 Jury Ranking: 5
Will It Go Through? Of course this song will go through. It is by far the most popular entry from this year with the fans. Her stage show, the fun lyrics, and decent vocal performance (given that she’s bouncing around the stage like a ragdoll) are all top notch. This is a full stage show and experience. She is the only one trying hard out here. The fact that it is ranked 5th by the jury is absolute trash. Those four boring entries ahead of her were uninspired garbage. Boo iHeartMedia jury!
Predictions
Let’s see how I’ve done so far …
Round 1: 2/3 (Although Ryan Charles from Wyoming ultimately made it through …)
Round 2: 2/3 (Although ENISA from New York ultimately made it through)
Round 3: 1/3 (I didn’t think Riker Lynch could overcome his jury deficit)
Round 4: 2/3 (I am still shocked that New Hampshire jumped Nevada)
Round 5: 2/3 (I am glad California made it though)
I’ve only gotten 60% right; 65% if you add the fact that I thought Wyoming and New York would go through. I never really understood how the jury rankings would ultimately effect the outcome. Now it is far more interesting because they stacked the night with boring songs and the jury now has no more input.
Going into the night, here were the combined Spotify streams. (Thanks @ASC_Charts!)
If we had to pick purely based on previous streams, it should be Oklahoma, Wyoming, Rhode Island, and Colorado going through. (Note: ASC took down the YouTube videos for early entries for comparison.) However, looking at that system does disadvantage the entries that appeared later.
If I was picking who went through, I would pick Oklahoma, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Given last night’s performances alone, I would say that I expect Oklahoma, Kentucky, Michigan, and Montana to go through. They are all wholesome American fare. If I average everything out, I think it will be Oklahoma, Wyoming, Rhode Island, and Kentucky going through.
