As I mentioned before, Eurovision season is my favorite time of year. It eclipses all sport and holidays. It is a magical time of year that I think should give the entire world a weeklong holiday. This year I am hosting watch parties for people who are not as familiar with ESC, and I am hoping they will all learn to love it as much as I do.
Below I will summarize my thoughts on how I think this semi-final will turn out. This is just based on the song and live performance clips from rehearsals. For more of my thoughts on each entry, please review my Hot Takes Nobody Asked For.
The Songs
This semi-final is a mixed bag. There are some phenomenal entries and some okay entries. At least there are very few boring entries! As always, my mind knows some deserving entries will not continue onto the final and hearts will be broken.
Finland — The Rasmus — “Jezebel”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2019
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 6
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 14
My ESC Group Ranking: T-15th
Will They Make It: While I do like this song better than Blind Channel’s entry from last year, I think it can also get a boost from the brand name recognition of The Rasmus. While he often goes flat, this song is pretty catchy. I think it will go through.
Israel — Michael Ben David — “I.M”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2014
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 17
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 33
My ESC Group Ranking: T-15th
Will They Make It: While I do oddly like this song, I am not a fan of his live performance. There are plenty of others in this group that should go through instead.
Serbia — Konstrakta — “In corpore sano”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2017
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 15
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 11
My ESC Group Ranking: T-1st
Will They Make It: This song is fantastic. She sounds great live. If she doesn’t go through it would be the biggest surprise of the night.
Azerbaijan — Nadir Rustamli — “Fade to Black”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2018
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 20
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 27
My ESC Group Ranking: T-15th
Will They Make It: This is a pretty weak entry from Azerbaijan. Can he sing, sure. Considering the other entries in this semi, it shouldn’t go through.
Georgia — Circus Mircus — “Lock Me In”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 30
My ESC Group Ranking: T-11th
Will They Make It: The last time Georgia made the grand final was with a rock song in 2016. This song is fun, they sound great live, and the stage show is fun. This should make it through.
Malta — Emma Muscat — “I Am What I Am”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2018
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 7
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 24
My ESC Group Ranking: T-5th
Will They Make It: She is a bit pitchy live. This is the kind of inspirational song that usually makes it through. She should go through, but she will be on the bubble.
San Marino — Achille Lauro — “Stripper”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2018
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 22
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 20
My ESC Group Ranking: T-11th
Will They Make It: I know this song is not good, but I oddly love it. Mix it with this completely insane stage show, and it will have a hard time not going through.
Australia — Sheldon Riley — “Not the Same”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 13
My ESC Group Ranking: T-13th
Will They Make It: They really shouldn’t. Can he sing? Yep. However, this song is bad, and Poland has the much better ballad.
Cyprus — Andromache — “Ela” (Έλα)
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2013
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 16
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 16
My ESC Group Ranking: T-1st
Will They Make It: This is going to be a close one. She is a little pitchy live. The song isn’t as captivating as the last few years. She will likely miss out on the bubble.
Ireland — Brooke — “That’s Rich”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 32
My ESC Group Ranking: T-5th
Will They Make It: Recorded, this song is a banger. She is going for the sexy slutty entry look this year, and that should get her extra votes. She should go through.
North Macedonia — Andrea — “Circles”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 16
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 40
My ESC Group Ranking: T-13th
Will They Make It: Not even close. She is pitchy, and this song is bad. This song tied for its win, and they should have sent the other entry.
Estonia — Stefan — “Hope”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 17
My ESC Group Ranking: T-1st
Will They Make It: I absolutely love this song. It is catchy, and he has a great voice. A little pitchy live, but not as bad as other entries. He should wear the hat on stage. I think he goes through easily.
Romania — WRS — “Llámame”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 37
My ESC Group Ranking: T-5th
Will They Make It: I’m obsessed with his moxie. He sells it. He is living his best life. This should go through, but he will likely miss out on the bubble.
Poland — Ochman — “River”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 8
My ESC Group Ranking: T-5th
Will They Make It: Yes. He is amazing.
Montenegro — Vladana — “Breathe”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2019
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNC
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 35
My ESC Group Ranking: T-15th
Will They Make It: No.
Belgium — Jérémie Makiese — “Miss You”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2019
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 19
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 18
My ESC Group Ranking: T-5th
Will They Make It: He is really pitchy. This song is lackluster. He shouldn’t qualify, but he has a shot to given that he is the only entry like it.
Sweden — Cornelia Jakobs — “Hold Me Closer”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2010
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 14
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 3
My ESC Group Ranking: T-5th
Will They Make It: Yes. It is Sweden, and they have only not qualified once.
Czech Republic — We Are Domi — “Lights Off”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 23
My ESC Group Ranking: T-1st
Will They Make It: They should. People generally love Czech Republic unless the performance is really bad. Given a good performance, this should go through.
Predictions
Here is who I think should go through:
1. Serbia
2. Georgia
3. San Marino
4. Ireland
5. Estonia
6. Poland
7. Romania
8. Czech Republic
9. Cyprus
10. Sweden
Here is who I think will go through:
1. Finland
2. Serbia
3. Georgia
4. Malta
5. San Marino
6. Ireland
7. Estonia
8. Sweden
9. Czech Republic
10. Poland
