As I mentioned last time, Eurovision season is my favorite time of year. It eclipses all sport and holidays. It is a magical time of year that I think should give the entire world a weeklong holiday. This year I am hosting watch parties for people who are not as familiar with ESC, and I am hoping they will all learn to love it as much as I do.
Below I will summarize my thoughts on how I think this semi-final will turn out. This is just based on the song and live performance clips from rehearsals. For more of my thoughts on each entry, please review my Hot Takes Nobody Asked For.
The Songs
In general, this is a very strong semi-final. There are more good entries than there are spots in the Grand Final. It is going to be gut wrenching when some deserving entries do not make it into the Grand Final.
Albania — Ronela Hajati — “Sekret”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2017
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 21
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 22
My ESC Group Ranking: T-1st
Will They Make It: Albania usually makes a pretty strong showing. They should make it, especially with a song this good. She is a bit pitchy, but she has hair choreo and dancing.
Latvia — Citi Zēni — “Eat Your Salad”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 26
My ESC Group Ranking: T-5th
Will They Make It: Latvia has not made it to a Grand Final since Justs did “Heartbeat” in 2016. This song is great though, and it should go through if they jury doesn’t sink it. These guys have swag like what I expect from a recent Czech Republic entry.
Lithuania — Monika Liu — “Sentimentai”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2019
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 8
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 38
My ESC Group Ranking: T-1st
Will They Make It: Lithuania did very well last year with The Roop’s “Discoteque”. This song is also very good, and it has a chance to go through but will be on the bubble. She can sing and brings the quirk.
Switzerland — Marius Bear — “Boys Do Cry”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2018
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 3
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 15
My ESC Group Ranking: T-16th
Will They Make It: This is a really boring song. It should not go through, but he can sing. That puts it on the bubble.
Slovenia — LPS — “Disko”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 39
My ESC Group Ranking: T-5th
Will They Make It: This song is actually cool, and I think it has a shot to go through but will be on the bubble. The giant disco ball and their swanky suits help make this stage show great.
Ukraine — Kalush Orchestra — “Stefania” (Стефанія)
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: Never
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 5th
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 1
My ESC Group Ranking: T-1st
Will They Make It: Yes. This is the biggest no brainer of the season. Their stage show is fantastic, which is how they got second in Vidbir to begin with.
Bulgaria — Intelligent Music Project — “Intention”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2013
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 11th
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 34
My ESC Group Ranking: T-15th
Will They Make It: No. However, due to the well placement of other bad rock songs in recent years, I would not be surprised if they rob someone of a deserved spot. They have pyrotechnics and are one of the only rock entries on this night.
Netherlands — S10 — “De diepte”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2015
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 23rd
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 9
My ESC Group Ranking: T-5th
Will They Make It: They should because this song is fantastic. She can sing, and this is the type of solo performance that usually goes through.
Moldova — Zdob și Zdub and Frații Advahov — “Trenulețul”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2019
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 13th
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 21st
My ESC Group Ranking: T-1st
Will They Make It: Yes, and I think they are the dark horse to win. Their showmanship is amazing and the song is soooooo goooood.
Portugal — Maro — “Saudade, saudade”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2019
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 12th
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 11th
My ESC Group Ranking: T-5th
Will They Make It: Yes, but they will be on the bubble. She can really sing with her coven of witches.
Croatia — Mia Dimšić — “Guilty Pleasure”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021 (I’m still mad)
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 28th
My ESC Group Ranking: T-13th
Will They Make It: No, considering the other options. If it does it will likely rob a country like Portugal of its spot.
Denmark — Reddi — “The Show”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021 (I’m still mad)
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 35th
My ESC Group Ranking: T-13th
Will They Make It: No, considering the other options. However, it has a shot to make it through.
Austria — Lumix feat. Pia Maria — “Halo”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2021
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNQ
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 29th
My ESC Group Ranking: T-5th
Will They Make It: No, but I think they will be one of the ones on the bubble. This live performance is sure woof compared to the amazing record.
Iceland — Systur — “Með hækkandi sól”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2018
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 4th
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 31st
My ESC Group Ranking: T-10th
Will They Make It: No, but I genuinely think they should. They are absolutely fantastic live. However, Iceland doesn’t have much of a voting bloc to help get it through.
Greece — Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord — “Die Together”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2018
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 10th
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 6th
My ESC Group Ranking: T-10th
Will They Make It: Yes, but it will be on the bubble. It is the kind of slow song that usually makes it through even when it doesn’t deserve to.
Norway — Subwoolfer — “Give That Wolf a Banana”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2016
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: 18th
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 7th
My ESC Group Ranking: T-10th
Will They Make It: Yes, but I don’t think they should. The dance moves and lyrics appeal to the male vote.
Armenia — Rosa Linn — “Snap”
Last Time They Did Not Qualify: 2019
Last Year’s Grand Final Placement: DNC
Current Position on the Odds Boards: 19th
My ESC Group Ranking: T-13th
Will They Make It: No, but I think it should. She reminds me of a young Ricki Lake, and it makes me love her even more.
Predictions
Here is who I think should go through:
1. Albania
2. Lithuania
3. Ukraine
4. Moldova
5. Latvia
6. Netherlands
7. Portugal
8. Slovenia
9. Iceland
10. Armenia
Here is who I think will go through:
1. Albania
2. Latvia
3. Ukraine
4. Moldova
5. Netherlands
6. Norway
7. Slovenia
8. Portugal
9. Greece
10. Lithuania
Let’s see if I’m right when Eurovision kicks off on Tuesday!
