We have officially made it to that time in the week where we wake up tomorrow on the day of the Grand Final. I’m beyond excited for tomorrow afternoon. I plan on making fun snacks and beverages to celebrate!
Lingering Feelings from Semi-final 1
I’m still hurt about Albania and Latvia. Both gave such heart in their performances. I won’t get over them for a while, even though I’m happy for Portugal and Iceland.
Hot Takes on Semi-final 2
This was heartbreaking. So many good entries didn’t make it through. I’m really in my feelings about San Marino because that was pure entertainment and excellent use of the stage. San Marino got my 12 points. I’m gutted for Ireland because she did so good for what I expected. While, I am so impressed that Romania made it, I’m still upset about these other two. I’m gonna need at least 10 years to get over San Marino not going through.
The Songs
Czech Republic — We Are Domi — “Lights Off”
In-Country Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Czech Televote Ranking: 4th
In-Country International Televote Ranking: 1st
Odds Before Semi-2: 13th Place — <1%
Odds Today: 12th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: I genuinely enjoy this song. However, she was really pitchy live in Semi-final 2. It’s a good song to open the show with, but I don’t expect it to place well.
Romania — WRS — “Llámame”
In-Country Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Televote Ranking: 2nd
Odds Before Semi-2: 31st Place — <1%
Odds Today: 25th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: I genuinely enjoy this song. However, she was really pitchy live in Semi-final 2. It’s a good song to open the show with, but I don’t expect it to place well.
Portugal — Maro — “Saudade, saudade”
In-Country Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Televote Ranking: 1st
Odds Before Semi-2: 15th Place — <1%
Odds Today: 17th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: First of all, I am so excited that she qualified. I genuinely love this song, and I was worried that she wouldn’t make it. While this song isn’t a winner, it should do well.
Finland — The Rasmus — “Jezebel”
In-Country Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Televote Ranking: 1st
Odds Before Semi-2: 14th Place — <1%
Odds Today: 14th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: I actually think this is one of the few songs in Eurovision that is better live than it is recorded. Given the recent success of rock entries in the contest, I expect them to place in the Top 15.
Switzerland — Marius Bear — “Boys Do Cry”
In-Country Jury Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
In-Country Televote Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
Odds Before Semi-2: 21st Place — <1%
Odds Today: 19th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: I don’t appreciate that people have been harassing him online. That’s not cool. While I wish either Armenia or Latvia would have had this spot, he is here, and we have to respect it. That being said, I suspect the majority of his votes came from the jury and not the televote.
France — Alvan and Ahez — “Fulenn”
In-Country Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Televote Ranking: 1st
Odds Before Semi-2: 19th Place — <1%
Odds Today: 16th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: This is the entry I am the most excited about from the Big 5. I want this song to do well, and I wouldn’t mind if they won at all.
Norway — Subwoolfer — “Give That Wolf a Banana”
In-Country Jury Ranking: N/A (Regional Televoting)
In-Country Televote Ranking: 1st in 4/5 Regions
Odds Before Semi-2: 9th Place — 1%
Odds Today: 9th Place — 1%
Thoughts Before the Final: I’m still mad at Norway for sending this. There were so many other good entries, and I still stan Trollfest as their joke entry from this year. That said, this is catchy, and it will do well. I suspect it will be in the Top 15.
Armenia — Rosa Linn — “Snap”
In-Country Jury Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
In-Country Televote Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
Odds Before Semi-2: 18th Place — <1%
Odds Today: 18th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: I love this song. It’s going to be one of my favorite that I listen to over the year. I am still super excited that she qualified. It is a bit lackluster on the stage show, so I don’t expect it to do well or place in the Top 10.
Italy — Mahmood and Blanco — “Brividi”
In-Country Press Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Demoscopic Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Televote Ranking: 1st
Odds Before Semi-2: 4th Place — 8%
Odds Today: 4th Place — 6%
Thoughts Before the Final: I get why people like this song, but it’s not my cup of tea. I don’t think it will win, but I think it will do well and place in the Top 10.
Spain — Chanel — “SloMo”
In-Country Expert Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Demoscopic Jury Ranking: 2nd
In-Country Televote Ranking: 3rd
Odds Before Semi-2: 5th Place — 4%
Odds Today: 5th Place — 4%
Thoughts Before the Final: This song came with controversy, but it seems that the fans really like it. It will not win, but I expect Spain to do well this year perhaps even finishing in the Top 10.
Netherlands — S10 — “De diepte”
In-Country Jury Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
In-Country Televote Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
Odds Before Semi-2: 8th Place — 1%
Odds Today: 10th Place — 1%
Thoughts Before the Final: This is one of my favorite recorded songs from this year. However, I found the stage show to be a little bland. I am really glad she made it through, but I do not expect her to place in the Top 15.
Ukraine — Kalush Orchestra — “Stefania” (Стефанія)
In-Country Jury Ranking: 3rd
In-Country Televote Ranking: 1st
Odds Before Semi-2: 1st Place — 56%
Odds Today: 1st Place — 60%
Thoughts Before the Final: I love this song. I love this stage show. There is a reason it is predicted to win. While I personally prefer Moldova’s entry, I don’t see anyone else beating them.
Germany — Malik Harris — “Rockstars”
In-Country Radio Ranking: 2nd
In-Country Televote Ranking: 1st
Odds Before Semi-2: 27th Place — <1%
Odds Today: 25th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: This is my least favorite song from the Big 5. I expect it to do poorly and finish near the bottom of the pack.
Lithuania — Monika Liu — “Sentimentai”
In-Country Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Televote Ranking: 1st
Odds Before Semi-2: 28th Place — <1%
Odds Today: 23rd Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: She is magic. Having been projected 40th going into the competition, I personally think the odds boards have underestimated how much The Roop made the world love Lithuania. Even with her simple stage show, I think she will shine and do quite well.
Azerbaijan — Nadir Rustamli — “Fade to Black”
In-Country Jury Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
In-Country Televote Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
Odds Before Semi-2: 25th Place — <1%
Odds Today: 21st Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: This song is going to have to compete with a lot of other ballads. While he can sing, I see Poland or Australia picking up most of these votes.
Belgium — Jérémie Makiese — “Miss You”
In-Country Jury Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
In-Country Televote Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
Odds Before Semi-2: 23rd Place — <1%
Odds Today: 22nd Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: I was really surprised this made it through. While he had some interesting vocals, this song seemed incomplete. The stage performance didn’t do much for me. With the energetic entries and ballads making up this Grand Final, I do not expect him to place well.
Greece — Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord — “Die Together”
In-Country Jury Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
In-Country Televote Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
Odds Before Semi-2: 7th Place — 1%
Odds Today: 7th Place — 1%
Thoughts Before the Final: She was real pitchy in Semi-final 1. I was actually surprised she qualified. My guess is she got the jury vote. I expect her votes from Semi-1 to go to an entry like Poland instead.
Iceland — Systur — “Með hækkandi sól”
In-Country Jury Ranking: Undisclosed (1st Combined)
In-Country Televote Ranking: Undisclosed (1st Combined)
Odds Before Semi-2: 26th Place — <1%
Odds Today: 20th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: I absolutely adore this song. These sisters are pure magic together. I genuinely love them. I honestly have no idea how this will do overall. I am hoping they do quite well.
Moldova — Zdob și Zdub and Frații Advahov — “Trenulețul”
In-Country Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Televote Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
Odds Before Semi-2: 11th Place — 1%
Odds Today: 11th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: This is my favorite entry. Their energy and performance quality is off the charts. Moldova is here to slay. I want on this train!
Sweden — Cornelia Jakobs — “Hold Me Closer”
In-Country Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Televote Ranking: 2nd
Odds Before Semi-2: 3rd Place — 8%
Odds Today: 3rd Place — 9%
Thoughts Before the Final: She was oddly out of breath and struggling to be heard in parts of her Semi-2 performance. I’m not sure what was going on with that. However, when she gets going she has good vocals. I would imagine she will finish in the Top 5.
Australia — Sheldon Riley — “Not the Same”
In-Country Jury Ranking: 2nd
In-Country Televote Ranking: 2nd
Odds Before Semi-2: 12th Place — 1%
Odds Today: 13th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: I don’t get this entry. Can he sing? Sure. Is this a singing competition? No. This song is pretty lackluster considering the other ballad alternatives. I think he will probably finish in the Top 15, but going before the UK is tough business.
United Kingdom — Sam Ryder — “Space Man”
In-Country Jury Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
In-Country Televote Ranking: N/A (Internal Selection)
Odds Before Semi-2: 2nd Place — 10%
Odds Today: 2nd Place — 11%
Thoughts Before the Final: People say this is the best entry the UK has had in years. Even though they finished last in 2021, that song did not deserve it. In fact, it has become one of the most streamed Eurovision songs. I do expect this entry to do well. It’s the kind of quirk that the UK needed to send, and I think it will place in the Top 10.
Poland — Ochman — “River”
In-Country Jury Ranking: 2nd or 3rd
In-Country Televote Ranking: 1st
Odds Before Semi-2: 6th Place — 2%
Odds Today: 6th Place —1%
Thoughts Before the Final: I really enjoy this song. I’m not normally a ballad, but I live for the part when he uses his falsetto. The music in this track is excellent. While he was a little sleepy in Semi-2, I expect him to do well in the Grand Final.
Serbia — Konstrakta — “In corpore sano”
In-Country Jury Ranking: 1st
In-Country Televote Ranking: 1st
Odds Before Semi-2: 10th Place — 1%
Odds Today: 8th Place — 1%
Thoughts Before the Final: She is fantastic. Her sound quality in Semi-2 was excellent. The stage show is perfection. I expect her to give everyone a run for their money in the Grand Final. I think she will finish in the Top 5.
Estonia — Stefan — “Hope”
In-Country Jury Ranking: N/A (Televote Only)
In-Country Televote Ranking: 1st
Odds Before Semi-2: 16th Place — <1%
Odds Today: 15th Place — <1%
Thoughts Before the Final: This is probably my favorite song in the competition. It has a fantastic recording, music video, and message. I think he has a great voice. I am excited to see him close the show. He deserves a Top 10 finish, but I have a feeling it will be in the Top 15.
Predictions
I think this year predicting the order of the finalists is going to be very hard. There is a little something for everyone, and a lot of countries that would normally support one another that are both good. It will be interesting to see how any vote dilution between similar entries occurs.
Here are my Top 15 going into the final made up of a mix of the recording and the stage shows:
1. Moldova
2. Ukraine
3. Serbia
4. France
5. Iceland
6. Estonia
7. Lithuania
8. Spain
9. Poland
10. Sweden
11. UK
12. Armenia
13. Netherlands
14. Portugal
15. Romania
I genuinely think Ukraine will win. They are fantastic and symbolize everything Eurovision is about. Their music is a mix of genres, and their stage performance marries contemporary music and folkways. It’s great. I personally just prefer Moldova because I really love that song, and it brings similar cultural elements to the mix.
Here is who I think will be in the Top 15 in no particular order:
1. Moldova
2. Ukraine
3. Serbia
4. France
5. Australia
6. Italy
7. Lithuania
8. Spain
9. Poland
10. Sweden
11. UK
12. Norway
13. Netherlands
14. Portugal
15. Finland
No matter what happens, we will all be having fun during the Eurovision Grand Final!
